UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem: My picks will once again be quick and to the point my analysis behind fights will be back again soon.
Online Prelims (7 PM/ET):
Drew Dober (16-7, 1NC) vs. Jason Gonzalez (10-2): The night kicks off in the lightweight division. This fight should be a good one to start the night too. I think this one will be a lot of fun for the fans watching it. I got Drew Dober winning this one via a 2nd round TKO finish.
Yancy Medeiros (12-4, 1NC) vs. Sean Spencer (12-5): This fight in the Welterweight division could be a strategical slow paced point scoring fight. I think that the better fight in this fight though is Yancy Medeiros and he will pick up the win via a unanimous decision.
FS1 Prelims (8 PM/ET):
CB Dollaway (16-9) vs. Francimar Barroso (18-5): The televised prelims kick off in the light heavyweight division and we might see the hands fly in this brawl as both guys want to pick up a win pretty badly. I think this fight could be interesting all the way through as we could see good ground game as well as some good boxing. I am taking Dollaway to win this fight via unanimous decision.
Nik Lentz (28-7-2, 1NC) vs. Michael McBride (8-1): This fight will be a test of Lentz’s ability to avoid the mat and if he hits the mat it would be interesting to see what happens if this one does go to the ground. I haven’t seen much of Michael McBride on his feet and I think we will see if it stays up how well he can fight there. I am going to take Lentz to win this one via 1st round TKO.
Brad Tavares (13-4) vs. Caio Magalhaes (9-2): The middleweight division fight of the prelims and I just can’t wait to watch this fight kick off. I think both fighters will come in and go all in hands flying and takedown attempts will eventually follow. I could be wrong but I just don’t want to see a tactical fight with the talent that both of these guys have. I really think Tavares is the better fighter in this one and will pull off a unanimous decision win.
#10 Jessica Eye (11-5, 1NC) vs. #11 Bethe Correia (9-2): Bam the main event of the televised
prelims is going to be an all-out brawl. Bethe will be looking to rebound here and she could do so by being the dominant great fighter she is and I think she honestly will beat Jessica Eye in the 1st round via KO.
Main Card (10 PM/ET):
#6 Jessica Andrade (14-5) vs. #7 Joanne Calderwood (11-1): Here we go this fight is going to be incredible between two girls that with one win could become a top 3 fighter in this division. Jessica moved down a weight class and I can’t lie she looks terrifying at this weight class. I think Calderwood is the perfect test to see if she is really ready for a possible title talk. I personally believe Andrade has all the talent in the world and at strawweight is going to as hard to beat as Joanna Jed. I have Andrade winning this fight in the 1st round via KO.
#2 Uriah Faber (33-9) vs. #12 Jimmie Rivera (19-1): This fight has the most overrated fighter in the UFC in it, that fighter being Uriah Faber. Jimmie goes to decision too much and I think that could hurt him. The way to beat Uriah is simple honestly, you have two options. The first way to beat Uriah is be aggressive and come get him. The second way to beat him is have a UFC title around your waist. He can’t beat a UFC champ. I think Jimmie Rivera is the better all-around fighter though Uriah is a nearly complete fighter with just some inconsistencies as of late. I think Rivera wins this fight via split decision.
CM Punk (0-0) vs. Mickey Gall (2-0): FINALLY!!!!! CM Punk and Mickey Gall are going to go to war. CM Punk is making his UFC and MMA debut. Mickey Gall is a young future star and is taking on a big personality here with Punk. The spotlight has never shined so bright on a fight with two guys with two combined professional MMA fights between them. I am so pumped for this fight and so happy it finally is going to happen. Mickey Gall is a humble respectful kid and I think his humility will keep him calm and will shake the PPV main card jitters. I think Punk is going to have 6 good MMA fights but I don’t think this will be one. I got Gall winning this one in the 2nd round via a brutal RNC submission.
#1 Fabricio Werdum (20-6-1) vs. #6 Travis Browne (18-4-1): The Co-Main event of the evening which will take place in the heavyweight division could be a good one. It could also be a one-man show. I used to think Browne was headed to the top but he has continuously just looked flat ever since his loss to Arlovski and I hope he rebounds soon because he could be a true title holder if he figures it out. His opponent will be the normal Werdum and if it goes to the mat there is nobody better and if it stays standing will have to pick his shots wisely. I think Werdum gets the win fast in the 1st round with a submission win.
(C) Stipe Miocic (15-2) vs. #3 Alistair Overeem (41-14, 1NC): HERE WE GO!!!! The fists will fly! The hands will go crazy and somebody’s eyes will close in the first round as they go to sleep. I am literally torn to pieces picking this fight. Overeem when he is on is as terrifying as a heavyweight can be, but there are times where he doesn’t look good almost like he isn’t as focused. Stipe is consistently insane and just an absolute savage. This fight is going to be ridiculously fun even if it goes 30 seconds. I seriously can’t figure out who the winner is so I am going to take a complete shot in the dark. I have us crowning a new champion in Cleveland taking the title away from the Cleveland champion. I have the Reem grabbing a 1st round KO.
- Matt Koontz
UFC Fight Pass
Drew Dober (16-7) vs. Jason Gonzalez (10-2): The very first fight of the night is in the lightweight division. The first fighter is Drew Dober who has won seven of his last 11 fights. He has won six fights by knockout and five fights by submission with four of these finishes in the first round. His opponent is making his debut in the UFC. Jason Gonzalez is coming into the UFC on a six fight win streak. In his career he has won six by submission and four by knockout making all of his wins by finish. Even though it's from another organization, Jason Gonzalez is hot right now and I think he is going to come into this fight on a roll. In the second round I predict he will land a strong hit, get a knockdown and smother him for a quick submission victory.
Yancy Medeiros (12-4) vs. Sean Spencer (12-5): The next fight is one class up, the welterweight division. Yancy Medeiros has won three of his last five fights. He has won six fights by knockout and three more by submission with six finishes in the first round. Medeiros is a crazy striker with a good mix of elbows and spinning kicks. His opponent is Sean Spencer who has won six of his last ten fights. Spencer has two wins by knockout and two by submission. Nothing against Sean Spencer, but I think Yancy is going to dominate here. Looking at Spencer's previous fights he seems just above average to me as to where Yancy has a ton of weapons ready that he can unleash with no warning. This is going to be specific as hell, but I think in the first round Yancy is going to land a jumping spinning back kick, rock him and swarm for a TKO.
Fox Sports 1 prelims
CB Dollaway (16-9) vs. Francismar Barroso (18-5): Here we are on the televised prelims and the first fight is in the light heavyweight division. CB Dollaway has won four of his last eight fights and has lost three in a row. He has six wins by knockout and three more by submission. Dollaway is a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a noted collegiate wrestler. He is a National Wrestling Champion and a NCAA All-American. His opponent is Francismar Barroso who has won 15 of his last 18 fights. Barroso has ten wins by knockout and four more by submission with 11 of his finishes in the first round. He is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a black belt in kickboxing. This will be a good matchup, but I believe that Barroso will have an upper hand in striking because of the distance of kickboxing. So I predict this will go to the ground in the middle of the first and stay there with each person trying to out work the other. In the second round I think depending on how the first round went Dollaway will fly in for a takedown early. From there he will try to overpower while Barroso will work a great defense. I predict that late in the second Barroso will get a submission from the bottom.
Nik Lentz (28-7-2) vs. Michael McBride (8-1): The next fight will be going back to the lightweight division and the second debut of the night. The UFC debut is for Michael McBride who is on a four fight win streak. All of his wins are by submission and six of them were in the first round. His opponent is Nik Lentz who has won five of his last seven fights. Lentz has won nine fights by TKO and seven fights by submission. He was also a Division I wrestler in college. I think it would be easy to see that Lentz should keep this fight standing and I believe he has the tools to do it. As great as it is to see guys get a bunch of first round stoppages, it also usually means that they have no cardio. So I think Lentz will take this out of the first round and McBride will start to struggle in the second. Then Lentz will take it to the ground once he feels comfortable and land nasty shots until he gets a TKO.
Brad Tavares (13-4) vs. Caio Magalhaes (9-2): The next fight will be in the middleweight division. First up is Brad Tavares who has won six of his last eight fights. He has four wins by TKO and two wins by submission and five of these finishes were in the first round. On the other side is Caio Magalhaes who has evenly distributed wins with three by knockout, three by submission and three by decision. Four of his six finishes were in the first round. Magalhaes is also a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Just looking at stats I'm going to call this thing to go to decision. Tavares has four more wins and two more losses. They have the same amount of finishes and one more of Brad's finished in the first. Most of the time when people get this close in these kinds of stats someone drops early, but this time I think that it will be back and forth until the end. I predict that Brad Tavares will win by split decision just because he is slightly better than someone i consider almost identical stat wise.
(#10) Jessica Eye (11-5) vs. (#11) Bethe Correia (9-2): This is the main event for the prelims and we get to see two ranked fighters in the women's bantamweight division. Bethe Correia is probably most known for the way she shit-talked Ronda Rousey before their fight. Well anyone that saw that fight saw that Bethe wasn't ready for that caliber of fighters. She even lost the fight after that one so now she has lost two in a row. Although I'd like to make it clear that I'm not bashing her because before that she was 9-0 and fought around this rank. Correia is a purple belt in Kung Fu and a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Her opponent, Jessica Eye, is just one rank above her. Eye has three wins by knockout and another by submission. She has currently lost three fights in a row so it will be important to win here for both fighters. This could be another close fight and people probably think that Eye may have the upper hand, but I noticed the Correia has close to double the significant strikes landed per minute; Correia has 5.7 while Eye has 3.5. I predict that Correia will come out swinging and just crowd the shit out of Eye. By the end of the first round Bethe will have picked up a win by TKO.
(#6) Jessica Andrade (14-5) vs. (#7) Joanne Calderwood (11-1): We are kicking off the main card with a matchup in the women's strawweight division. Joanne Calderwood will be the first to walk out tonight so she will be the first discussed. Not only having a nearly perfect record in the UFC, she also had a near perfect record in pro kickboxing at 19-2. Also outside of the UFC, she is a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has practiced Muay Thai for 17 years. In the UFC she has five wins by knockout and three of them were in the first round. She has also never been taken down in her MMA career. Her opponent is Jessica Andrade who has won 12 of her last 16 fights. Andrade has six wins by submission and five wins by knockout with six finishes in the first round. She is also a blue belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and a light blue belt in Muay Thai. This fight will be a good mix of stand up and clinch for the first round with both fighters taking damage. Into the second round I predict that Joanne will initiate the clinch and work elbows and knees. Andrade will get a trip takedown and land heavy shots and pick up a TKO towards the end of the second round.
(#2) Urijah Faber (33-9) vs. (#12) Jimmie Rivera (19-1): The next fight is in the men's bantamweight division between two fighters on the opposite side of the rankings. Jimmie Rivera is on an 18 win streak with his only loss being in his second fight. He has four wins by knockout and two more by submission with only two finishes in the first round. Rivera also has a perfect takedown defense. His opponent is Urijah Faber who is the founder of Team Alpha Male. Faber is most known for his time in WEC and was probably one of the most popular people in the organization. In his career he has 17 wins by submission and nine by knockout. My problem is, for a few years now Faber has fought a ton of people that are close to nobody and he gets cocky when he dominates them yelling for a title shot. Then every once in a while he fights someone in the top 5 and he gets dominated. He belongs in the low tens as far as ranking goes and only fight people around that rank. Well Jimmie looks like he is on the way up the ladder and he may take a huge step up here. This is going to be an interesting fight because I think that Faber will want to take it to the ground for a quick submission and Rivera will try to keep this standing. Just by the stats I think if Rivera gets taken down its as good as over, but I think he will be able to keep it off the ground. I think this could be a long battle with a lot of time spent with Rivera having to use his takedown defense to stay up, but being able to land shots. I am going to call that Rivera wins this by decision.
Phil "CM Punk" Brooks (0-0) vs. Mickey Gall (2-0): We are at the middle fight of the card and under normal circumstances nobody with these records would ever see a main card. Well these aren't normal circumstances. This fight came about from Phil Brooks signing to the UFC after retiring from the WWE. You may also be thinking, that anyone signed straight to the UFC without an MMA record must have a martial arts background. Again, these aren't normal circumstances. Phil Brooks has a "background" in Kempo karate and has been training full time with Duke Rufus and Rener Gracie for two years now. His opponent obviously has to have a similar record and experience and luckily Mickey Gall has been asking for this fight since his first win. Both of Gall's wins are by submission in the first round. Gall also is a brown belt in Gracie jiu-jitsu and a blue belt in Muay Thai. From a fan standpoint I am completely on CM Punk's side, but since I'm supposed to be analyzing I find it hard to lean that way. Mickey Gall has proven experience in the octagon and we can't really compare it to anything because Punk has no experience anywhere other than Roufusport Gym. As unique a situation like this is I am going to say I want Punk to win, but I think Gall will win by second round submission.
(#1) Fabricio Werdum (20-6-1) vs. (#6) Travis Browne (18-4-1): Now is the co-main event and we get to see two of the best heavyweights collide. Travis Browne is a finishing machine with 14 knockouts and two submissions. He has finished his last six wins and six of his wins took less than a minute. Browne looks like he is only about boxing, but he is also a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. On the other side of the cage is one of the greatest heavyweights in the history of STRIKEFORCE. Fabricio Werdum is the number 1 ranked heavyweight right behind the champion. He has 10 wins by submission and six wins by knockout. He is also a holder of many ranks with a black belt in both Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Muay Thai and a brown belt in Judo. This is going to be a crazy fight and I think that this fight will go just about everywhere. This is going to be a very strong stand up fight and I think it will go to the ground, but Browne will need to get out of that quick if he wants to survive here. In their last fight it went the distance and Werdum won, but couldn't finish him. This time I think that Travis Browne will come in and get a clean second round knockout.
(C) Stipe Miocic (15-2) vs. (#3) Alistair Overeem (41-14): This is the main event of the night and it's another massive heavyweight battle. The challenger in this championship bout is Alistair Overeem. Overeem is one of the biggest names to ever touch the heavyweight division with almost 60 fights and still going strong. He has won five of his last six fights and four in a row. In his career he has 20 knockouts and 17 submissions so this guy is a brutal freak of nature. If you still aren't convinced of this guy's power, during his fight against Brock Lesnar, only one kick broke three of Lesnar's ribs. The champion is Stipe Miocic who just dethroned Fabricio Werdum in his previous fight. Miocic has won six of his last seven fights and this will be his first title defense. Out of his 15 wins, 12 of them were by knockout and seven of those were in the first round. Stipe was a Division I wrestler in college so he isn't just a stand up fighter either. I see this fight being all stand up though with Stipe seeing that as his main weapon and Overeem not backing down from that challenge. I want to watch this fight go a while, but I predict that Miocic is just going head first into this one and Overeem will make him pay the price. I'm calling a first round KO with Overeem the new champ.